C5 4332 · ROA → IAD

departs 10:39 AM ET · arrives 12:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 3.3 in of rain forecast at ROA that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ROA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip2.98 in

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip1.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4332 · ROA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?