Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4332
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4332 · ROA → IAD
departs 10:33 AM ET · arrives 11:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
ROA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROA
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.