Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4332
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4332 · ROA → IAD
departs 10:31 AM ET · arrives 11:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↑
ROA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROA
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.