G7 4400 · DCA → EWR

took off 10:58 AM ET · landed 11:36 AM ET (scheduled 10:28 AM ET → 11:42 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.80 in

EWR (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4400 · DCA → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?