G7 4400 · DCA → EWR

departs 10:29 AM ET · arrives 11:41 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.41 in

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling467 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4400 · DCA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?