MQ 3955 · MIA → JAX

left the gate 12:00 PM ET · taxiing (scheduled 12:04 PM ET → 1:26 PM ET)

Your aircraft is N303DD (E170), coming in as MQ 3814 from TLH: landed 11:04 AM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at JAX that day

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are usually not late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.84 in

JAX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3955 · MIA → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?