Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3955
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3955 · MIA → JAX
departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 1:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
11am departures from MIA are often late
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.