Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3989
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Tomorrow
MQ 3989 · EIS → MIA
departs 2:33 PM AST · arrives 5:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Sun 10/11
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14 26%
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave EIS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
2pm departures from EIS are usually not late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EIS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.