Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3989
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12
MQ 3989 · EIS → MIA
departs 2:03 PM AST · arrives 5:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Sun 10/11 41%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14 26%
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave EIS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
2pm departures from EIS are usually not late
Weather at each end
EIS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.