OH 5232 · MSY → DCA

took off 11:43 AM CT · expected to land 3:05 PM ET (scheduled 11:00 AM CT → 2:40 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

94% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
6%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
51%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5232 · MSY → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?