Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5232 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5232 · MSY → DCA

departs 10:11 AM CT · arrives 1:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5232 · MSY → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?