QK 783 · DCA → YYZ

departs 10:53 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM EDT

Your aircraft is CGJHZ (CRJ9), coming in as QK 821 from YUL: in the air, landing about 10:16 AM ET, 31 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into YYZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.20 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 783 · DCA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?