QK 822 · DCA → YUL

took off 10:37 AM ET · landed 11:55 AM EDT (scheduled 9:41 AM ET → 11:32 AM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YUL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.97 in

YUL (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 822 · DCA → YUL

Odds over time

How late did it get to YUL?