QK 824 · DCA → YUL

departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 6:12 PM EDT

Your aircraft is CFNJZ (CRJ9), coming in as QK 823 from YUL: still at YUL, due off about 2:22 PM EDT, 25 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

↓ Arrivals into YUL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.96 in

YUL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 824 · DCA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?