RV 1642 · YYZ → MIA

took off 9:21 AM EDT · expected to land 12:11 PM ET (scheduled 8:55 AM EDT → 12:11 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ 8am departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.85 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1642 · YYZ → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?