Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA ROUGE · FLIGHT RV 1642 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

RV 1642 · YYZ → MIA

departs 8:55 AM EDT · arrives 12:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 8am departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.11 in

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1642 · YYZ → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?