YV 4023 · IAD → SBN

departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 8:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.82 in

SBN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4023 · IAD → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?