YX 4515 · DCA → HXD

took off 10:56 AM ET · landed 12:17 AM CST (scheduled 8:22 AM ET → 10:24 PM CST)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HXD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HXD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.80 in

HXD (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4515 · DCA → HXD

Odds over time

How late did it get to HXD?