Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4515 · DCA → HXD
departs 8:21 AM ET · arrives 10:24 PM CST
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 10%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at HXD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HXD?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HXD (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.