YX 5859 · JFK → DCA

left the gate 3:41 PM ET · taxiing (scheduled 3:00 PM ET → 4:29 PM ET)

Your aircraft is N209JQ (E75S), coming in as YX 5822 from IAD: landed 1:40 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.14 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5859 · JFK → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?