9E 5233 · LGA → YYZ

took off 3:51 PM ET · landed 4:53 PM EDT (scheduled 2:21 PM ET → 3:51 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YYZ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at LGA that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5233 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late did it get to YYZ?