Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5233 · LGA → YYZ

departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 3:52 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5233 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?