Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

9E 5233 · LGA → YYZ

departs 2:22 PM ET · arrives 3:56 PM EDT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5233 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?