AA 204 · PHL → AMS

departs 7:25 PM ET · arrives 8:48 AM CEST

Your aircraft is N881BK (B788), coming in as AA 747 from NCE: landed 12:59 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into AMS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 204 · PHL → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?