Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 204 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 204 · PHL → AMS

departs 7:18 PM ET · arrives 8:40 AM CEST

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 204 · PHL → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?