Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 204 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 204 · PHL → AMS

departs 7:02 PM ET · arrives 7:57 AM CEST

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Arrivals into AMS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 204 · PHL → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?