AA 3241 · BOS → MIA

took off 7:56 PM ET · expected to land 10:35 PM ET (scheduled 6:22 PM ET → 10:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
1%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
76%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.41 in

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3241 · BOS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?