Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3241 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 3241 · BOS → MIA

departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 7:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 4pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.03 in

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3241 · BOS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?