AA 582 · DCA → MIA

left the gate 5:27 PM ET · taxiing (scheduled 5:23 PM ET → 8:14 PM ET)

Your aircraft is N810NN (B738), coming in as AA 789 from ORD: landed 4:06 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 582 · DCA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?