Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 3224 · DFW → MSP
departs 3:30 PM CT · arrives 6:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.