Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 3224 · DFW → MSP
departs 3:28 PM CT · arrives 6:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.