Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 3286 · DEN → CVG
departs 11:19 AM MT · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Today 25%
Wed 10/14 37%
Thu 10/15 35%
Sun 10/18 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CVG (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.06 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.