MQ 4177 · DCA → RDU

departs 2:03 PM ET · arrives 3:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.41 in

RDU (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4177 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?