Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4177 · DCA → RDU
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 2:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 77%
Mon 10/12 34%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 27%
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 29%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.