Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
MQ 4228 · MIA → TPA
departs 2:12 PM ET · arrives 3:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.