Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4228 · MIA → TPA
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 22%
Sun 10/18 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.