Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4313
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12
MQ 4313 · MIA → EIS
departs 12:12 PM ET · arrives 3:07 PM AST
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/11 20%
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at EIS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EIS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at EIS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EIS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EIS
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
EIS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
EIS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.