OH 5135 · DCA → MSP

took off 3:49 PM ET · expected to land 4:55 PM CT (scheduled 3:29 PM ET → 5:13 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

MSP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,733 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5135 · DCA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?