WN 1516 · DCA → OMA

departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.33333 mi Precip0.25 in

OMA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1516 · DCA → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?