Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1516 · DCA → OMA
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 32%
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.