WN 1788 · DEN → SMF

took off 1:03 PM MT · expected to land 2:07 PM PT (scheduled 12:12 PM MT → 1:48 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
55%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1788 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?