Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1788
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 1788 · DEN → SMF
departs 8:51 AM MT · arrives 10:24 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
This flight has been late 8% of the time recently
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.24 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.