Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1788
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1788 · DEN → SMF
departs 12:13 PM MT · arrives 1:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 22%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
12pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.27 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.