YX 4476 · HSV → DCA

departs 6:10 AM CT · arrives 9:17 AM ET

Your aircraft is N127HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4657 from DCA: landed 11:58 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at HSV that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

HSV (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4476 · HSV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?