Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4476 · HSV → DCA
departs 6:10 AM CT · arrives 9:21 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 6%
Sun 10/18 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HSV is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
HSV (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.