YX 4542 · YYZ → LGA

took off 7:30 AM EDT · landed 8:39 AM ET (scheduled 7:22 AM EDT → 9:10 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ 7am departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4542 · YYZ → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?