Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4542 · YYZ → LGA
departs 7:16 AM EDT · arrives 9:04 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
YYZ is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.