Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4542 · YYZ → LGA
departs 7:23 AM EDT · arrives 9:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 30%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.11 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.