YX 4551 · DCA → JFK

took off 9:05 AM ET · landed 9:49 AM ET (scheduled 5:53 AM ET → 7:16 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at JFK that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from DCA are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

JFK (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4551 · DCA → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?