Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4551 · DCA → JFK
departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 7:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 4%
Wed 10/14 3%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 5%
Sat 10/17 5%
Sun 10/18 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.